As recently as 2012, college educated voters were pretty evenly split between the two parties. If you don’t have a college degree, you are now very likely to vote Republican. If you have a college degree, you are now very likely to vote Democratic. They’re going to get more attention paid to them by Congress.Īnd then the third thing that struck me was what we have seen, this continuing growth in the split between party affiliation by educational level. But youth voters are a growing segment of the voting bloc. Certainly something a lot of our colleges and universities are tracking in terms of civic engagement and in helping their students participate in the democratic process. And that, I think, is indicative of maybe there were some issues on the ballot that people were concerned about, particularly around the Dobbs decision and the decision around Roe, but also a growing impact of youth voters. It’s not a huge number when you think about it, 27 percent, but it’s the second-highest young voter turnout in a midterm since 2018. 27 percent of registered voters 18 to 24 voted this year. I know we’ll talk a little bit later about what that narrow margin means, but the second thing that stuck out to me was the role of youth voters. It’s a shock to everyone, certainly to Republicans who had big plans for what they would do in the majority. Total seats gained half of what the average is. We’re looking right now at Republicans taking 11, maybe 14, somewhere in that range. President Trump lost 39 seats in his first midterm, President Obama lost 69 seats in his first midterm, and President Clinton lost 60 in his first. Recently, that’s been even more pronounced in a midterm election. And there’s a lot of historic basis for that on average, the party in power loses 27 House seats and three Senate seats. There had been some thought the Senate Democrats would retain the Senate, but I think the question on the House side was always how big the red wave will be, how many seats Republicans would pick up. Jon Fansmith: I’ll start maybe and give you my three takeaways in terms of things that stuck out to me looking at what we saw.Īnd the first one is the obvious one, right? This was not what anyone expected. Terry Hartle: Hopefully some factual knowledge too. Terry Hartle: It certainly will be, and we’ll have plenty of opinions to share. This is one I think will be a lot of fun to talk about today, Terry. Today we’re going to dig into the midterm elections, what may or may not happen in the lame-duck session, and what to expect for higher education in the new Congress. I’m Jon Fansmith in Government Relations here at ACE, and I am joined as usually I am joined, by my esteemed colleague, Terry Hartle, ACE senior vice president for government and public affairs. Hello and welcome to today’s post-election Public Policy Pop-Up. As always, we appreciate your questions and suggestions for show ideas, and you can share those with us at That’s Now enjoy the conversation. In this episode of our monthly interactive recording, Terry Hartle joins me to talk about the recent midterm elections and what a narrowly divided Congress will mean for higher education policy this year and the next. I'll tell him what is a lame duck, and that is trying to get into Downing Street on the back of Alex Salmond’s coat tails, never mind talk of ducks, I am looking at Alex Salmond’s poodle.Jon Fansmith: Hello and welcome to dotEDU. It's a real wild card in the House whether (Speaker John) Boehner is going to be empowered by this larger majority or whether they're going to be a bigger thorn in his side in the way we've seen in the past, so as we look to whether the relative harmony and lack of drama of this lame-duck period can continue in the new Congress, I think that's going to be a major factor.Ī lot of people on something this important do not want to have it passed or rejected by a lame duck Congress. I don’t know why this had to be done on Day One, it makes it much less likely that we ’ll deal with the disability problem until the lame duck session - and that wo n’t provide a good result for American taxpayers. It is possible for Congress to carefully consider the details of this agreement and to review all of the benefits associated with this agreement for states and communities all across the country without kicking the vote all the way to the lame duck period, there is no reason that we need to wait that long, and particularly when you consider the views that have been shared by some leaders in the business community about how important it is for this agreement to get implemented so that American workers and American businesses can start reaping the businesses.
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